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【文旅院】顛覆——中國旅游業(yè)今明年將全面和徹底地“洗牌”?

時間:2020-07-15來源:世界酒店聯(lián)盟 作者:采編中心
  
這兩天,又有幾篇小文章讓人讀了腦洞大開的(這里不細述)。經(jīng)過長達半年的“新冠病毒疫情”肆虐,很顯然“中國旅游業(yè)”的投資與經(jīng)營局面將會迎來深層次顛覆大家可以非常理性地研究下我們新成立的“文旅部”和新整合組建的“中國旅游集團”,以及北京最大的綜合性旅游企業(yè)“首旅集團”在半年時間里做了些什?又能做些什么?當然,從政治和人民生命健康安全來看,政府和國有特大型企業(yè)做了大量的和非常值得贊譽的現(xiàn)實工作。然而,對于中國旅游業(yè)來講,全國的文旅部門和許多的超大型的綜合性旅游集團應(yīng)該知道“旅游業(yè)經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)出”現(xiàn)實情況非常嚴峻。有關(guān)文章報道說,全球有幾十萬家企業(yè)倒閉(包括上百年的著名奢侈品品牌企業(yè)),全國有10000多家旅游企業(yè)和40000多家酒店實體已經(jīng)關(guān)門倒閉,數(shù)字不一定精確,但現(xiàn)實一定比“數(shù)字”更加“不忍細看”。建議行業(yè)管理部門和全國旅游業(yè)同仁重點研究下北京這個具有政治、文化、經(jīng)濟、交通等中心地位和特殊屬性的“旅游之都”吧,可以這樣預測,北京的旅游業(yè)今年十•一之前的八個月將是一個“垮掉的時期”,北京長安街沿線的大酒店、大酒樓、大戲院(包括連鎖院線)、大旅游景點、大商業(yè)綜合體等等都損失慘重(本人長時間在這個地區(qū)工作和居住)。可以想象:北京首旅集團在“新冠病毒疫情”這半年期間損失是巨大的(許多員工每月只拿1000元生活費),這個損失國家將如何提供資金支持和政策扶持(國家在2020—2021年又能拿出多少錢進行“攤大餅式”的拯救和幫扶眾多國企呢?)?大型國企尚且如此,那么大大小小的民營旅游企業(yè)集團日子就更難過了。比如:浙江開元旅業(yè)集團、上海春秋航空集團、海航集團、江西三清山旅游集團、海南民間旅行社集團等等它們每家企業(yè)的損失都是億元以上計,盡管如此,它們還是一直苦撐著沒有倒下。試問:國家的旅游行業(yè)管理部門和研究機構(gòu)有沒有來自實地一線的采集的第一手統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)?這些千千萬萬的“大中國”之下的旅游和酒店企業(yè)到底死掉了多少?經(jīng)營虧損了多少?正在和即將倒閉的企業(yè)到底有多少?國家將拿出多少錢和什么樣的政策幫助和引導企業(yè)渡過難關(guān)?特別是我們的民營旅游和酒店企業(yè)。
2020年是一個人類文明史上最值得關(guān)注和重視的一年!因為我們通過現(xiàn)代文明和高科技能看見和感觸到這個“庚子年”的極其可怕和無情。中國旅游業(yè)在2020年將會發(fā)生諸多重大事件和“顛覆性現(xiàn)實”!其實,顛覆已經(jīng)來了:
我消滅你,與你無關(guān)。打敗你的往往不是你的競爭對手!是誰在消滅你和打敗你呢?人們不會想到,小紅書、滴滴、拼多多等這樣的公司開始進軍旅游業(yè)了。“跨界”將是一個永恒的“時髦詞語”,2020年開始的跨界讓你更加防不勝防。那么,政府之下的超大集團和非常知名的“旅游企業(yè)”你們準備好了嗎?如果沒有政府資金支持(下一階段可能許多地方公務(wù)員發(fā)不出工資了)和政策性的幫扶你們怎么辦(國家本身也比較困難)?慣性思維的“等靠要”似乎已經(jīng)行不通了。從事出境游和入境游業(yè)務(wù)的旅行及商務(wù)服務(wù)公司幾乎全服關(guān)停或倒閉了。國內(nèi)的省、市、自治區(qū)之間的組團旅游業(yè)務(wù)也沒有正式開啟,怎么辦?國內(nèi)的旅行社企業(yè)你們還能干什么?我在尋思:國家為什么不倡導“新冠病毒疫情”相對安全的地區(qū),如海南、湖南、云南、廣西、西藏、江蘇、江西、四川等率先開禁并有序進行多省區(qū)聯(lián)動“走向健康之旅”呢?如果不能積極做到這一點,那么,國家目前驗收那么多的“全域旅游示范區(qū)”有何實際意義?那些眾多攜巨資的旅游投資開發(fā)企業(yè)到處“信誓旦旦”的要投資幾十億幾百億不是“慷慨赴死”嗎?以人與自然融合和人與人“互動歡娛”為要素的“大旅游行動”停滯了(家門口的小旅游不是長久之計),投資商投資大型文旅項目和旅游小鎮(zhèn)項目不是“腦殘”就一定是有以“破壞生態(tài)環(huán)境進行洗錢”之嫌的。
2020“新冠病毒疫情”在全球范圍內(nèi)依然沒有完全控制住,毫無疑問,美國在八月份將突破500萬“新冠病毒”感染人數(shù)是無懸念的,那么全球“新冠病毒”感染者人數(shù)將會在八月突破2000萬。這是令我們這些“當代文明人”非常懼怕的!據(jù)權(quán)威媒體預測并報道,如果新冠疫情持續(xù)12個月,那么全球旅游業(yè)經(jīng)濟將會直接損失3.3萬億美元(全球經(jīng)濟GDP將損失4.3%以上)毋容置疑,中國是全球病毒疫情管控和救治的典范,未來中國將會是“全世界的一片凈土”!這場突如其來的“新冠病毒疫情”將會深刻地影響人類未來幾十年。在這兩三年內(nèi),全球旅游業(yè)經(jīng)濟的繁榮將無法全面恢復和振興,中國旅游業(yè)發(fā)展大趨勢將會在2020—2021年“自然撕裂”和“人為重構(gòu)”。據(jù)可靠消息透露,國家文旅部在2020—2021年將有三到四位部長副部長級高官到齡退休和調(diào)整(包括雒樹剛部長),那么,在這個非常關(guān)鍵的一年和一年半時間里,中國旅游業(yè)是一個自我生存發(fā)展、自我“斷臂求生”、自我“無奈改嫁”和在絕望中自我“安樂死去”的“最無語”時期。在這個時期中,強者有了許多“剪羊毛”的理由和機會,也就是說:強者更強,他們會在此時期擁有更多的政治資源、資本渠道、品牌效應(yīng)、軟實力滲透和人力資源儲備等優(yōu)勢。特別是具有文化基因、先進科創(chuàng)和觀念經(jīng)濟思維的企業(yè)和機構(gòu),它們將會更多地“贏得未來”,比如:復星旅文集團、宋城演藝股份、云南城投集團、泛旅文化集團等等,未來綜合性的“大平臺”和“影響力”、“軟實力”極其重要,它們都是企業(yè)投資和發(fā)展的“戰(zhàn)略資源”
2020—2021中國旅游業(yè)全面和徹底顛覆和洗牌的“大戲”已經(jīng)拉開了帷幕……

A few days ago, I wrote an article ," Save —— China's tourism will be completely "dead " economy in today and next year ? Industry peers are paying more attention.

These two days, there are a few more small articles let people inspired (not detailed here). After half a year of "coronavirus epidemic" raging, it is clear that "China's tourism" investment and management situation will usher in a deep-level subversion. We can rationally study what our newly established "Ministry of Culture and Tourism" and newly integrated "China Tourism Group ", as well as what Beijing's largest comprehensive tourism enterprise" Beijing Tourism Group ", what has they done in this half a year? What can they do? Of course, in terms of politics and people's lives, health and safety, the government and state-owned mega-enterprises have done a lot of practical work and very commendable. However, for China's tourism industry, the national tourism sector and many super-large comprehensive tourism groups should know that "tourism economic output" reality is very serious. The article reports that hundreds of thousands of businesses around the world have closed down (including hundreds of years of well-known luxury brands), and that more than 10000 tourism businesses and more than 40000 hotel entities across the country have closed down. The number is not necessarily accurate, but the reality must be more "unbearable to look at" than the "number". It is suggested that industry management departments and national tourism colleagues should focus on Beijing as a "tourist capital" with political, cultural, economic and transportation characteristics. It can be predicted that the eight months of Beijing's tourism industry is going to be a "period of collapse" before October 1st., and the big hotel, the big restraunt , the big theater (including the chain line), the big tourist attractions, the big commercial complex and so on along Chang'an Street in Beijing have suffered heavy losses (I have been worked and lived in this area for a long time). we can imagine: Beijing Tourism Group in the "coronavirus epidemic" loss is huge in this half year period (many employees only take 1000 RMB per month for living expenses), How will the state provide financial and policy support to the loss?(how much money can the state spend and help many state-owned enterprises with “pancake style” in 2020-2021? Large state-owned enterprises are so, and the small private tourism enterprise groups even more sad in these days. For example: Zhejiang Kaiyuan Travel Group, Shanghai Spring and Autumn Airlines Group, HNA Group, Jiangxi Sanqingshan Tourism Group, Hainan Folk Travel Group, and so on, each of their enterprises losses are more than 100 million yuan, despite this, they have been struggling not to fall.May we ask: does the national tourism industry management and research institutions have first-hand statistics collected from the field line?How many tourism and hotel enterprises have died under the "Great China"? How much is the operating loss? How many enterprises are going to close down? How much money and what kind of policies will the state provide to help and guide enterprises through difficulties? Especially our private tourism and hotel enterprises.

 2020 is the most worthy of attention in the history of human civilization! Because we can see and feel this "Gengzi Year" extremely terrible and ruthless through modern civilization and high technology. China's tourism industry will have many major events and "subversive reality" in 2020! In fact, subversion has come:

 I destroy you, it is none of your business. It's not your competition to beat you! Who is destroying you and defeating you? People don't think that companies like Little Red Book, Didi, and Pinduoduo are starting to travel business."Cross-border" will be an eternal "buzzword ", starting in 2020 cross-border let you hard to prevent. So, are you ready for the mega-groups under the government and the very well-known "tourism enterprises "?What if you don't have government funding (maybe many local civil servants may have no pay in next stage) and policy support (the country itself is difficult)? The "wait-and-see" of habitual thinking does not seem to work. Travel and business services companies engaged in outbound and inbound travel business almost completely shut down or closed down.Between the domestic provinces, municipalities, autonomous regions group tourism business has not officially opened, how to do? What else can you do with domestic travel agencies? In the search: why does the state not advocate the "coronavirus epidemic" relatively safe areas, such as Hainan, Hunan, Yunnan, Guangxi, Tibet, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Sichuan and other first banned and orderly multi-provincial linkage "to a healthy journey "?If this can not be done actively, then what is the practical significance of the national acceptance of so many "global tourism demonstration areas ", Those tourism investment and development enterprises that carry huge amounts of money are willing to invest tens of billions of dollars everywhere. Isn't it "generous to die"? With the integration of man and nature and human "interaction and entertainment" as the elements of the "big tourism action" stagnated (small tourism at home is not a long-term solution), investors to invest in large cultural tourism projects and tourism town projects is either "brain disability" or "damage to the ecological environment for money laundering suspicion" .
There is no doubt that there will be more than 5 million Coronavirus infections in the U.S. in August, and the number of Coronavirus infections will exceed 20 million in August. This is what makes us modern civilized people very afraid! According to authoritative media forecasts and reports, if the Coronavirus epidemic lasts 12 months, the global tourism economy will lose $3.3 trillion directly (the global economic GDP will lose more than 4.3%).There is no doubt that China is a model for the control and treatment of the global virus epidemic, and that China will be "a pure land in the world" in the future! This sudden " Coronavirus epidemic" will have a profound impact on human future decades. what In these two or three years, the prosperity of the global tourism economy will not be fully restored and revitalized, and the general trend of China's tourism development will be "natural tear" and "artificial reconstruction" in 2020-2021. According to reliable sources, between 2020 and 2021, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism will have three or four senior ministers and deputy ministers to retire and adjust (including Luo Shugang), In this crucial and one and a half year, China's tourism industry is a period of self-survival and development, self-" broken arm survival ", self-" helpless remarriage "and self-" euthanasia" in despair.In this period, the stronger have many reasons and opportunities for "shearing ", that is, the stronger are more stronger, and they will have more advantages in this period, such as political resources, capital channels, brand effects, soft power penetration and human resources reserve. In particular, enterprises and institutions with cultural genes, advanced science and economic thinking, they will "win the future" more, such as: Fosun Travel Group, Song Cheng Performing Arts shares, Yunnan City Investment Group, Pan Culture & Tourism Group and so on.

The "big drama" of China's tourism industry comprehensive and complete subversion and reshuffle have begun in 2020-2021.


 
 


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