按照2019年統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字表明，中國(guó)是世界第一大出境旅游國(guó)，第四大入境旅游國(guó)，全球綜合旅游發(fā)展指數(shù)排名第二，僅次于法國(guó)。然而，從2020年開始，這些個(gè)來自官方的“數(shù)字”將會(huì)徹底發(fā)生變化。自從文化部和國(guó)家旅游局合并以來，中國(guó)旅游產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展“大趨勢(shì)和基準(zhǔn)線條”比較模糊，行業(yè)發(fā)展及管控力度越來越弱，文化與旅游的融合似乎有不少是“強(qiáng)行嫁接”，許多地方行業(yè)管理部門整合尚未完成，“文旅小鎮(zhèn)”項(xiàng)目落地成災(zāi)，行業(yè)投資開發(fā)企業(yè)越來越“六神無主”……

突如其來的新冠病毒疫情天災(zāi)，中國(guó)旅游業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)幾乎是遭遇“滅頂”，國(guó)際游沒了，國(guó)內(nèi)游也幾乎沒了（跨區(qū)域旅游系統(tǒng)依然沒有恢復(fù)的“時(shí)間表”），只剩下“自由行”和家門口的“自?shī)首詷?rdquo;了，這樣的局面還能構(gòu)成旅游業(yè)“產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)格局”嗎？旅游業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展是眾多的人與人和人與自然的互動(dòng)交流的結(jié)果，目前線上的旅游集團(tuán)業(yè)務(wù)就死得更慘了。

China's coronavirus epidemic has been basically under control (but there is a possibility of local recurrence), the global coronavirus epidemic is still grim, the first wave of the U.S. epidemic has not yet arrived, Brazil and India and other countries have high epidemic growth figures. There is no doubt that the world has faced and appeared "pattern reorganization ", political, economic, military, science and technology and other forces have been redistributed.

As an important aspect of the service industry, tourism has been hit hard. We have learned from the Tourism Industry Associations and Research Institutions of the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Canada and other major countries that the international tourism business has been suspended for half a year, especially China's inbound and outbound tourism business has been catastrophic. Many international travel agencies and their derivatives businesses and institutions have closed down.

According to the UN World Tourism Organization, the global tourism industry was hit hard by the new coronavirus epidemic in 2020, and the annual number of international tourists fell 60% to 80% from last year or so. The World Tourism Organization, based in Madrid, Spain, believes that the global tourism industry is suffering from the worst crisis since at least 1950, with many countries imposing travel restrictions to combat the epidemic, including airport closures and borders.

According to 2019 statistics, China is the world's largest outbound tourist country, the fourth largest inbound tourist country, and the global comprehensive tourism development index ranks second, second only to France. However, from 2020, these official "game numbers" will be completely changed. Since the merger of the Ministry of Culture and the National Tourism Administration, China's tourism economic development seems to be increasingly blurred, industry control is becoming weaker, the integration of culture and tourism seems to have a lot of "forced grafting" be suspected, many local industry management departments and investment and development enterprises are confusing

Not long ago, I saw an article "the global tourism industry is dead ", recently saw the report that more than 40000 hotels in China closed down, thousands of hotel brands fell. Although it is a bit serious, it is truth.

Coronavirus Epidemic Scourge, China's tourism economy has almost suffered a "devastating disaster ", international tourism has disappeared, and domestic tourism has almost disappeared (the cross-regional tourism system has not recovered), leaving only" free travel "and" self-entertainment "at home, can such this situation still constitute the tourism" industrial economic pattern "?

Recently, I have been in Hainan, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Beijing and other areas of tourism economy first-line research, there are very few tourist in famous scenic area , stay in hotels are only 20-40% of open rate, although there are 30% of open rate for some hotels, but only half of the price (then this open rate is equal to the previous 10~15%). Crucially, many hotel and mid-end hotel chains have closed down in several places (Many brand names are omitted here).

Not long ago, North China's largest and best-business country 5A scenic spots, the World Natural Heritage Conservation "Yeshanpou Scenic Area" declared bankruptcy. This is a very important "symbol" and "warning ", so" Impressed"scenic spots have closed down, other so-called" various flags "of the capital and assets of the operation of scenic spots, or tourist towns will be more ill-fated and not survive.

We recommend that the cultural and tourism administration departments promptly issue the <<National Overall Plan for the Economic Recovery and
Development of Tourism in the "Post-Infection Era of the Coronavirus>>, and support at the national level the development of healthy cross-regional tourism groups between provinces and municipalities, in particular high-end custom-made line tours and personalized leisure vacation tours (e.g. Hainan's tourism start-up and recovery is more representative). Otherwise, the tourism economy will be extremely bad in 2020.  Today, the beautiful Southeast Asian tourism business has been in shock for a long time, the very active Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan tourism economy is estimated to be unable to restart this year, China's tourism economy, which has grown in two digits each year for more than 40 years, has been "driving down ". A tourism economy that has contributed 10% to the country's GDP, or combined with a 9% employment rate, or linked growth in multiple industries, will be a "good memory"

We are very worried that China's tourism economy under the global outbreak is very "precarious ", and it is also possible to move to the edge of" total collapse "after October this year or before" May 1st." in first half of the next year.

Therefore, the ministers and senior leaders in charge of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism should attach great importance to the "tragic status quo" of China's tourism development.

The latest news, the EU's more than 3 million tourism enterprises also face a grim reality, EU tourism accounts for 30% of the global tourism industry, about 27 million people directly or indirectly engaged in tourism work. At present, France, Italy, Belgium, Germany, Switzerland and other countries are starting cross-border tourism, vigorously promote tourism recovery. These countries pay special attention to the tourism products around the RV and the niche tourism products, and integrate the RV sales, RV camp construction, aviation flight package, as well as health care and medical treatment, and package into more feasible and healthy and safe tourism products and tourism packages, which are worthy of Chinese tourism reference.